Demonstration · one client
What an OCR change does to one client – and who they talk to
Pick a scenario for the Reserve Bank's next decision and watch the same client go two ways: the bank's letter and the standard rate, or a Base IQ check-in in your name 90 days out. OCR today 2.75% (Held at 2.75% on 28 Oct 2026 (the committee voted 4–3 against a 0.25 rise)). Next decision 9 Dec 2026.
Anna Smith: two paths from today
Scenario: OCR up 0.25 on 9 Dec 2026 → 3.00%. Fixed rate ends 14 Jan 2027. Next term 12 months.
$112 a fortnight, about $2,922 over the term. And on path B the review is booked, the details are confirmed, and the next loan starts with you – not with the bank's retention team.
| Over the next 12 months | Now | A · Does nothing | B · Reviewed with you | A − B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 6.19% | 5.72% | 4.95% | 0.77 |
| Payment a fortnight | $1,663 | $1,592 | $1,480 | $112 |
| Interest paid over the term | — | $30,594 | $26,446 | $4,148 |
| Balance at the end of the term | $540,000 | $529,201 | $527,976 | $1,225 |
| Who the client talks to | — | The bank, when its offer letter arrives | You (90 days out, in your name) | The next loan |
How it is worked out. Path A: ASB's advertised 12-month special plus 0.60 (the bank's standard rate), moved by 50% of the OCR change when the change comes before the rate ends. Path B: the lowest advertised 12-month special (Kiwibank, 4.95%), rate-locked before the decision when the rate ends inside the 60-day lock window, otherwise taken at the end. Table loan, 24 years left, paid fortnightly. Rates: calculate.co.nz (lowest advertised rate for borrowers with at least 20% equity), 21 Sep 2026.
OCR: Held at 2.75% on 28 Oct 2026 (the committee voted 4–3 against a 0.25 rise). Next decision 9 Dec 2026. Westpac (28 Oct 2026) expects a 0.25 rise in December to 3.00% and a peak of 4.00% by September 2027 – a view, not a fact. Sources: Westpac IQ – RBNZ October 2026 Monetary Policy Review; interest.co.nz, 30 Aug 2026 – economists expect the OCR to rise to 2.75%; calculate.co.nz – NZ interest rates (OCR 2.75% from 2 Sep 2026; bank rates as published 21 Sep 2026); Squirrel – key OCR dates for 2026 and 2027.
Information, not advice. The adviser gives the advice in the review the client books.